I'm not trying to beat the market for a trade occurring, which is why I used those updated odds to calculate a 30% chance that he's traded to the Broncos and a 70% chance he stays with the Packers. Pictured: Aaron Rodgersīut it's not as simple as there being only either a 100% or 0% chance that Rodgers is traded to Denver, so I created a trade simulator to correctly price the potential blockbuster deal based on Rodgers' trade props and the Broncos' Week 1 starter odds at various sportsbooks. By contrast, when I simulate the season with a 0% chance that Rodgers is their Week 1 starter, they go over their win total only 40.9% of the time. Those chances are based on whether each of those quarterbacks are guaranteed to be the Week 1 starter, though, which means that when I simulate this season with a 100% chance that Rodgers is the Broncos’ Week 1 starter, they go over their 8.5-win total 88.1% of the time. Let's take a look at BetMGM's current market for that very prop:Īny other not listed” is just a fancy way of saying “Aaron Rodgers.” The future first-ballot Hall of Famer has made it known that he wants out of Green Bay, and Denver is the heavy favorite to land Rodgers if he ends up being traded.īased on my 2021 NFL simulations, here are the chances of the Broncos going over their 8.5 win total based on each potential Week 1 starter - including Rodgers: Who will be the Broncos' Week 1 starting quarterback? That's the only factor we need to consider when betting on their futures right now. The kicker? With rumblings about an Aaron Rodgers trade to Denver, Koerner has factored that possibility into these early simulations. Action's Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, simulated the 2021 NFL season 10,000 times to project win totals and playoff odds for every AFC West team in order to identify early value on their futures.
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